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Thursday, November 12

Much colder through the weekend, with a hard freeze likely region-wide Saturday morning. Temperatures return near normal and dry early next week.

No watches, warnings or advisories right now

From the NWS discussion issued 2:29 a.m. and the downtown forecast updated 7:52 a.m. The 5:30 a.m. update changed only the aviation section. Checked against the NWS text before it was shown (how).

NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City, updated 7:52 a.m. Precip.: the chance of rain or snow.

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 17–21

Temperature: 60% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 50% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 19–25

Temperature: 40% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 50% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

The forecast

What's coming, in plain English

How sure forecasters are

Forecasters give a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees Saturday morning and say the weekend will likely stay dry. Rain late next week is only a possibility. The hazardous weather outlook calls the chance of widespread hazardous weather low.

Read the NWS wording
- Much cooler conditions expected today through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
arctic air is anticipated to arrive this morning
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
cooling temperatures aloft will only lead to a five to seven
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
degree diurnal curve across northern Missouri, and closer to 10
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
degrees of warming across central Missouri today.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
development east of highway
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
65 which is expected to rapidly dissipate with the loss of
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region on Friday keeping temperatures below seasonal norms for this time of year.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
- Temperatures returning at or slightly above seasonal norms next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Temperatures return closer to seasonal norms early next week with omega block developing across the central US keeping the region dry through the first half of the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m.

What to watch

What you should actually worry about

Right now: nothing. There are no watches, warnings or advisories for the Kansas City metro.

Hard freeze

Friday night into Saturday morning (Whole area, greatest chance east of I-35)

A hard freeze is expected region-wide, with a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees F, most likely east of I-35. No watches, warnings or advisories are listed for Missouri or Kansas.

Cold wind chills

Tonight (Thursday night) (Whole area; upper teens only in isolated spots)

A light north breeze will make it feel like the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated spots.

Read the NWS wording
Hard freeze Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.

Uncertainty

Why the forecast might change

Read the NWS wording
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.

Since the last forecast

What changed

Comparing the NWS discussion issued 11:36 p.m. Wednesday with the one issued 2:29 a.m..

Compare the NWS wording

Now

Hard freeze Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.

Before

The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wednesday
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wednesday

Read with care

Where the NWS text is unclear

Read the NWS wording
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m.